人口增长与经济发展之间的关系很有趣。通常认为，高收入社会人口增长缓慢可能会阻碍其发展，而低收入社会人口增长较高可能会带来许多社会和经济问题（Peterson，2017）。非洲是一个有趣的例子。它是世界第二大人口最多的大陆，人口为12.16亿。根据联合国报告，非洲是世界上所有其他主要大洲中人口增长率最高的国家，预计到2050年之前，非洲将占全球人口增长的50％以上（非洲人口，2019年）。在本文中，将讨论三个原因，以试图回答以下问题：非洲人口增长为何没有对其经济产生积极的影响。
非洲面临的第一个挑战是其地理位置。一个国家所处的位置以及是否有机会进入海洋都会影响其经济发展。对于远离水和海洋的国家来说，如果他们想参加国际活动，他们将面临更高的运输成本和更多的困难，因为除了水运输成本之外，他们还必须支付陆路运输费用，这使他们处于与其他国家相比处于不利地位。此外，对于内陆国家而言，它们还需要严重依赖邻国的基础设施才能将货物运输到更远的地方。如果邻国没有高效的运输服务，则会增加另一笔额外费用。在非洲的55个国家中，有16个完全是内陆国家，这意味着非洲至少有三分之一的国家无法进入海洋（Rosenberg，2019年）。这样，在这个日益全球化的社会中，非洲正在失去参加国际商业的巨大机会。即使他们的大量人口在劳动力市场上获得了巨大的优势，但由于地理位置的原因而增加的额外成本也剥夺了这一优势。
The relationship between population growth and economic development is interesting. Normally, it is believed that low population growth in a high-income society may impede its development, while a high population growth in a low-income society may bring out many social and economic problems (Peterson, 2017). Africa is an interesting example. It is the second largest and most-populated continent in the world with a population of 1.216 billion people. According to the United Nations report, Africa has the highest rate of population growth among all the other major continents in the world and is predicted to contribute more than 50% of global population growth before 2050 (Africa Population, 2019). In this paper, three reasons will be discussed, trying to answer the question, why increasing population growth in Africa did not bring as much positive influence onto its economy.
The first challenge that Africa faces is its geography. Where a country is located and whether it has access to the ocean can all affect its economic development. For countries that are isolated from water and ocean, if they want to participate in international activities, they face higher shipping cost and more difficulties along the way, because they have to pay for land transportation in addition to water shipping cost, which put them at a disadvantaged position compared to other countries. Moreover, for landlocked countries, they also need to rely heavily on the infrastructure of their neighbors in order to transport goods farther away. If the neighboring countries do not have efficient transportation service, there is another additional cost added. Out of the 55 countries in Africa, 16 of them are completely landlocked, which means that at least one third of Africa’s countries have no access to ocean (Rosenberg, 2019). In this way, in this increasingly globalized society, Africa is missing a huge opportunity in participating in international business. Even when their big population gains them a great advantage in the labor market, the additional cost added due to location took that advantage away.
其次，即使非洲也有庞大的人口，但是年轻一代的比例却非常高。根据联合国教育，科学及文化组织（教科文组织）发布的报告，非洲41％的人口为15岁以下的儿童，识字率仅为65％。在非洲55个国家中，有17个国家的识字率仍低于50％（非洲人口，2019年）。投资者和企业家更有可能被识字率高的国家所吸引，并带来大量的投资，这反过来又可以对国家的经济产生积极的影响（Sachs＆Warner，1997）。因此，即使非洲人口激增，大多数人口仍是少年和儿童，他们尚未成为社会主流。而且文艺率低也是降低非洲经济增长速度的一个主要弊端。
第三，非洲的高腐败率是非洲发展的巨大负担。腐败被认为是非洲最大的威胁之一，不仅危害非洲大陆致力于其社会，经济和政治发展的努力，而且还危害非洲家庭，公民和商业伙伴的福祉。据预测，非洲政府每年在非腐败方面的支出为1,480亿美元。透明国际的《全球腐败晴雨表》发现，2019年，来自非洲35个国家/地区的47,000多名公民认为，本国的腐败现象正在加剧，政府没有做出足够的努力来解决这一问题。人们必须行贿才能购买药品，获得驾驶执照甚至护照。根据进行的调查，四分之一的人承认他们在过去的一年中至少必须贿赂一次（Whiting，2019）。腐败导致人们对政府失去信心，并增加了将业务扩展到非洲的难度，这导致失去了许多与非洲潜在的商业伙伴关系。没有良好的社会基础和稳定的商业环境，仅依靠人口增长将不会对经济产生积极影响。
总之，非洲是一个充满机遇和潜力的大陆。但是，由于许多原因，其人口增长并未对其经济增长做出贡献。原因之一是非洲的社会和环境还没有做好充分准备去面对人口大量增长可能带来的积极影响。如引言中所述，通常情况下，人口增长将对高收入发展国家带来积极的经济影响。但是，非洲本国社会仍然面临许多问题，因此人口的突然增加不仅对社会没有积极影响，甚至带来了许多社会问题。
Secondly, even Africa has a huge population, however, the percentage of younger generation is extremely high. According to the report published by the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 41% of the Africa’s population are children under the age of 15, and the literacy rate is only 65%. And 17 out of the total 55 countries in Africa still have a literacy rate lower than 50% (Africa Population, 2019). Investors and entrepreneurs are more likely to be attracted to nations with high literacy rate and bring in a large flow of investment, which in turn can turn into positive influence on the nation’s economy (Sachs & Warner, 1997). Thus, even though the population grows tremendously in Africa, the majority of the population are teenagers and children, who have not yet become the mainstream of the society. And the low literary rate is also a major drawback that slowed the development rate of Africa’s economic growth.Thirdly, the high corruption rate in Africa is a huge burden on its development. Corruption is considered one of the biggest threats in Africa, not only endangering the continent’s efforts toward its social, economic and political development, but also the well-being of families, citizens and business partners in Africa. It has been predicted that the government in Africa spent $148 billion every year in non-corruption efforts. Transparency International’s Global Corruption Barometer has found that in 2019, more than 47,000 citizens from 35 countries in Africa believe that the corruption is becoming worse in their nation and the government has not done enough efforts to solve the issue. People have to pay a bribe to buy medicine, get their driver licenses, and even passports. According to the survey conducted, every one in four people admitted that they had to at least bribe once in the past year in their daily life (Whiting, 2019). The corruption resulted in people’s loss of faith in the government and increased the level of difficulty to expand business into Africa, which leads to a loss of many potential business partnerships for Africa. Without a good social foundation and a stable business environment, purely relying on population growth will not bring in a positive impact on the economy.
In conclusion, Africa is a continent with a lot of opportunities and potential. However, its population growth is not contributing to its economic growths due to a lot of reasons. One of the reasons being that the society and environment in Africa is not prepared to be ready enough to face the positive influence that might been brought in with huge population growth. Like mentioned in the introduction, it is normally the case that population growth will bring positive economic influence on a high-income development nation. However, Africa still face many problems in its own society, so the sudden increase in population not only did not have a positive impact on the society, but even brought out many social problems.
References:
Africa Population. (2019-05-12). Retrieved 2019-11-29, from http://worldpopulationreview.com/continents/africa/
Hope, K. R. (2000). Corruption and Development in Africa. Corruption and Development in Africa, 17–39. doi: 10.1057/9780333982440_2
Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The Role of Population in Economic Growth. SAGE Open, 7(4), 215824401773609. doi: 10.1177/2158244017736094
Rosenberg, M. (2019, June 29). Can You Name All of Africa's Landlocked Countries? Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/african-countries-that-are-landlocked-4060437.
Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1997). Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies. Harvard Institute for International Development, 6, 73–225. Retrieved from https://watermark.silverchair.com/6-3-335.pdf
Whiting, K. (2019, July 29). 1 in 4 Africans had to pay a bribe to access public services last year. Retrieved November 29, 2019, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/africa-corruption-bribe-economy/.
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